tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post5531181127814360546..comments2010-05-13T23:08:16.726-04:00Nurseb911http://www.blogger.com/profile/04974722323117696369noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-12223867588838918682010-05-13T02:16:40.136-04:002010-05-13T02:16:40.136-04:00Valuable information and excellent post you got here! ThanksPenny Stockshttp://www.pennystockville.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-52253754404953941072009-06-18T17:10:42.244-04:002009-06-18T17:10:42.244-04:00Colin: I took time to explain my DDCF model and reasoning for choosing specific numbers in my analysis of IGM (http://www.nurseb911.com/2008/08/taking-stock-in-igm-part-iv.html)<br /><br />The reason I combine a calculation using ROE and P/B instead of a raw number such as EPS growth or BV growth is to achieve a more conservative growth rate for the calculation. Obviously any number you choose will sway your valuation in one direction or another. How I explain my approach in the IGM post should give you insight into why I choose the numbers I do as a value investor.<br /><br />If you have further questions feel free to email me.Nurseb911http://www.nurseb911.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-69230225024188154812009-06-18T12:30:26.488-04:002009-06-18T12:30:26.488-04:00Little late to the party here... I have been looking at your valuation method and I have a question as to the growth rate you use. <br /><br />I admit I don&#39;t really understand the calculation you are doing or why it is relevant. <br /><br />If we are to grow earnings forward for N years so we can apply a PE ratio and then discount the price back, shouldn&#39;t we use a more realistic growth rate, such as the actual EPS or BV growth rate over the last 10 years? Assuming that earnings are going to grow at 21.5% seems like wishfull thinking when they have only managed 15% or so in the past.<br /><br />Any insight you could provide would be most appreciated! Thank you, and you have a great site here I must say.Colinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-79503988830434685232008-11-20T21:56:00.000-05:002008-11-20T21:56:00.000-05:00Thanks for the detailed analysis. I'm afraid I have to give MFC a pass though. Corporate bond values are plummeting, and it is unclear to me how much more write-downs MFC will have to take. Until mortgages and corporate bonds stop falling, any company holding substantial bond investments is very difficult to value. Hopefully, by mid-2009, we will indeed see a floor on bonds, and financial stocks can at last begin their recovery. I will definitely pay special attention to MFC at that timevaluegeekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00028556273140411951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-87615635239151147012008-11-19T19:13:00.000-05:002008-11-19T19:13:00.000-05:00Oh yeah, that was me posing as anonymous on the second post too!T.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07038072152369209027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-88395740495004935252008-11-19T19:12:00.000-05:002008-11-19T19:12:00.000-05:00Thanks for the analysis. I have been eyeing the company for a while and when I saw bad news, I was finally smiling. I bought in today at $20.50, which is a nice 5% yield based.T.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07038072152369209027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-2713108518377148922008-11-14T21:52:00.000-05:002008-11-14T21:52:00.000-05:00Anon,<BR/><BR/>The loan, while a form of debt, is better IMO than the company issuing additional equity or running the risk of lower capital ratios. The company needed to do something proactive to help reduce its risk to further equity market declines and it keeps the company flexible in using excess equity for any insurance purchases that its been eyeing.Nurseb911http://www.nurseb911.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-50705620456705871052008-11-14T20:38:00.000-05:002008-11-14T20:38:00.000-05:00Fantastic post. Has your opinion on MFC changed with the $3B loan it took?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-81322975887277787232008-11-12T08:28:00.000-05:002008-11-12T08:28:00.000-05:00Anon,<BR/><BR/>In my post &quot;Taking Stock in IGM, Part IV&quot; I go into a detailed account of how I approach my DCF model with a description of the numbers I use &amp; why. I also include a link to a website with an easy to use calculator that you can benefit from online. I myself use an adapted excel spreadsheet for my calculations but the equation on gummystuff is the same.Nurseb911http://www.nurseb911.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-60443319256947917732008-11-11T13:11:00.000-05:002008-11-11T13:11:00.000-05:00What is the method you used to calculate your DCF model?<BR/><BR/>Would love to just see the equation in the final cell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-3685061788433046572008-11-06T20:00:00.000-05:002008-11-06T20:00:00.000-05:00DGI - Thanks for the strong vote of confidence. While I appreciate the suggestion of charging for these posts what would you pay (or others) to read or gain access to them?<BR/>I've always thought that my readers appreciate these "Taking Stock in" posts because they're honest and unbiased in their assessment. I've been fortunate to receive teachings for free from many of my mentors who never asked for anything in return.<BR/>If I can give back a little of what I've learnt for free and my own insights from experience through this site than I think I pay tribute to the value of those individuals such as Scott, Charles and Professor B.<BR/>I think accumulating MFC at these prices for a long-term investor is a very solid investment decision as I've pointed out in my valuation model.<BR/><BR/>Jae - the insurance model is tough to value and there's no easy way to do it. My decision has been to look to fundamentals, management, risk management and a basic valuation model (DCF) to gain a sense of what fair value I believe they hold.Nurseb911http://www.blogger.com/profile/13599091589209075856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-45324544601816612852008-11-06T15:05:00.000-05:002008-11-06T15:05:00.000-05:00What an excellent analysis!<BR/>The only problem is that I just can't seem to understand insurance models.<BR/><BR/>I'll have to keep this industry in the too hard pile, but at least you helped the pile shrink.jae junhttp://www.oldschoolvalue.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-2476098635594220122008-11-06T11:46:00.000-05:002008-11-06T11:46:00.000-05:00Brad,<BR/><BR/>This was a killer analysis. You should seriously consider charging for these. As the stock is down over 60% form its 2007 highs, is now the time to start accumulating?<BR/><BR/>I am all for international diversification and some canadian stocks do look pretty dividend achiever friendly to me..Dividend Growth Investorhttp://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-44864109130022040412008-11-06T05:41:00.000-05:002008-11-06T05:41:00.000-05:00Thanks for commenting Anon,<BR/><BR/>My feeling is that while we might revisit market lows from recent weeks, I'm not so sure on the low for MFC. If they report fair earnings today the market may see that as relative strength in its operations and realize that under $22 is an irrational choice. Then again - the markets have been irrational anyways, so who knows for sure.Nurseb911http://www.nurseb911.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-23285065846720909982008-11-06T00:04:00.000-05:002008-11-06T00:04:00.000-05:00Excellent post, I am currently looking to enter MFC as well.. but I feel it will re-test its 52 week low again shortlyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886595570005494885.post-14119721551291954842008-11-05T20:50:00.000-05:002008-11-05T20:50:00.000-05:00This is a test commentBradhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04974722323117696369noreply@blogger.com